April 3, 2007

Update: Europe PS3 Sales Down 80%, eBay Prices Makes Sense

wondered a few days ago about why the UK eBay prices for the PS3 were ridiculously low; I speculated that demand wasn’t nearly as high as the media was reporting. My conclusion was based on the eBay prices in Asia and America in the weeks following their respective launches (+100% markups), and then noticing the huge margin deflation often UK eBay prices (+20% markups). It seem reality has caught up to Europe’s PS3 market. Sales dropped over 80% this week. That has to be some kind of record.

This makes sense after Gigio (see prediction comment #3) pointed out that Europe has much more restrictive return policies. A cooling reseller market would be far riskier than in the US, and nearly guarantee plummeting prices due to the flood of supply as people try to get rid of them before the console loses even more demand. This also explains the pages and pages of auctions that were below retail price.

In contrast, the Wii is pretty much unavailable world-wide almost five months after its release.

I feel sorry for Sony, but they really brought them onto themselves. Bundling Blu-Ray was the dumbest thing they ever did. They could have taken this generation by storm had they kept the Blu-Ray off of the PS3 and drop the price $200 as a result.

Filed under: News — Michi @ 3:05 pm

Google TV Ads Coming Near You

The splash of the day is that Google is now doing trials of TV ads. It seems their grand plan is to use the cable box to track what you watch to determine what sort of ads are most effective to you.

People should note that this is a stark difference from search ads where you have direct access to what the visitor wants. On TV, people might settle and watch something that doesn’t interest them. Also, there are often multiple viewers at a time. Sometimes, there’s just nothing good on. Other times, you just leave the TV on while you fall asleep. Most importantly, how does all of this factor in services like TiVo that allow time shifting? Time will tell.

So what sort of potential does this all hold? Well, initially, I was poking holes in the concept when I was trying to equate how one would automatically figure out what ads to place after a person finished watching Hannibal. But in reality, many TV shows have predominant themes. Lost and the tropics, 24 and gadgets, or American Idol and pop culture. The point is that such a system won’t be as easy as online text ads, but it’s possible.

Imagine if you were watching a show on the top 20 hottest celebrities and the ads were only about fashion items such as clothes, iPods, sunglasses, and watches. Or during a commercial break from the evening news, you see products directly related to things you just saw in the news. I mean, it has potential. For pre-filmed content such as movies and long running TV series, this sort of optimization is done by humans. But for near-live content, human ad placement can only work off of general assumptions about what the show will likely contain.

Another interesting prospect is that ads can be clustered near the highest point of relevancy within a time slot. So Dell might want to buy placement in CSI, but the ad would come up in the point when someone mentions buying a computer. Again, you can see just how difficult such video parsing would be. But if Google is serious about TV ads, there’s no other direction to go except there. Anything else can be replicated by humans, probably more efficiently and accurately too.

Of course, the coolest part is that this is all web driven. Google’s ultimately goal is to create a single interface that lets a company publicize their product across every known medium to man. As their ad services becomes more mature and unified, Google will become increasingly more attractive to “lazy” advertisers. Should be an interesting few years.

That said, what’s going on with those radio ads? It’s been a long time since they closed that radio ad company purchase and yet we have yet to see a any real impact to their bottom line. That doesn’t sound like particularly good news, does it?

Filed under: News — Michi @ 11:33 am

On RSS Feeds and Working 24 Hours Straight

I know many of you have noticed that my feed burner counts go up and down a lot. On Friday it was at 227, 186 on Saturday, 198 on Sunday, and 247.

Feed Burner can’t know for sure how many people are subscribed because people turn off their computers or don’t visit their homepages that have my RSS feed. The point is, they can only count the people that are pulling down my RSS feed to their computer. As you might expect, weekends are low points since the most computer usage happens at work.

So my RSS feeds regularly dip on the weekends. On that note, I have gained something between 2 and 15 new readers this week! Hurray! :)

Expect another update later today. Normally I collect articles throughout the day and then I post my entry before I go to bed. But tonight I got back from work at 2:00AM after working for a day straight, so that wasn’t my first priority getting home. ;)

Although posting this update was…

Filed under: Life — Michi @ 1:31 am