Michi Knows

Amid all the rumors that Apple had stock related fraud, Apple’s stock dipped nearly 5% last Tuesday. When I read these articles, my first instinct was to buy. To me, it seemed evident that Steve Jobs wasn’t responsible for any of this. Numerous reports implicated former employees and that Jobs hadn’t benefited personally. And yet, the stocks were taking a beating.

While I was pondering the crazy idea of buying some Apple shares, the next morning news broke that an internal investigation exonerated Jobs, leading to a jump in shares of 5%. Damn.

It seemed stupid to me that people ignored previous indications that Jobs didn’t do anything. Did people not read the news? And I quote:

the matter “raised serious concerns regarding the actions of two former officers in connection with the accounting

It had been said from the very start the whole thing spun around the former officers, but then an internal investigation makes everybody confident again. Oh well. I guess I missed that boat.

In the other news, after my recent post about Google Checkout, I’m really starting to wonder if I should invest in Google. Three other factors have popped into my mind as to why the next 18 months for Google could be record-setting:

1. Google bought tons of dark fiber. Nobody stills knows exactly why. Perhaps in 2007 we’ll start to see the reason. I think the YouTube bandwidth could be a hint of things to come.

2. They are finally starting to do something with their radio ad agency they purchased. The interesting part to me is the following sub-heading in that article:

Until Google can strike a deal with CBS, or some other radio giant, “there will be no significant impact until mid-2007“

Well, now that CBS loves Google, I’m sure we’ll see that deal go down smoothly (eventually).

3. They have YouTube. Seeing as YouTube’s popularity is only growing, I’m interested in seeing what will happen. You see, one of the biggest costs to YouTube was bandwidth, the one thing Google can take in the chin without flinching. Even if YouTube costs a fortune to run, I think Google is ready to monetize it. I don’t think 2007 will be the year of Internet TV — it’s too early for that. But I do think 2007 will be the year internet TV will finally be recognized, just as internet telephony took a hold this year with Skype et al.

Right now Google is $500 a share. Adding in those above points plus the possibility of entering the CPA (cost per action) ad market, I think Google might gain a lot of value next year. Like in the order of 10 to 20 percent.

I’ll be pondering this a little while longer.